Given the fact that a new parliament was elected yesterday, the most important and urgent task faced by it is the stabilization of the economy and, above all, through the stabilization of the hryvnia exchange rate. This fundamental moment for the socio-economic and political stability of the country should be prescriptive by the decision of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine.
I hope that it is clear to everyone that in the event of a complete collapse of the economy there will be a new, but this time, armed revolution that will capture the capital and affect all regions of Ukraine. Such a situation can become more devastating and turn into a bloody tragedy. We have no right to admit it.
The new Verkhovna Rada, the new Cabinet and the National Bank should do everything for the steadfastness of the hryvnia, and, preferably, its return to the former course – 8-10 UAH. per dollar The depreciation of the dollar against the hryvnia will reduce prices and products, especially domestic production, and, most importantly, for food. Lowering prices will increase the purchasing power of citizens, which will a priori stimulate the production of goods of national origin. A compulsory lowering of the dollar at the expense of the directives of the country’s leadership, will reduce panic in the currency market, and will contribute to a real reduction in demand for the dollar from the population, which further stabilizes the hryvnia.
Purchase of currency for critical imports should also be made at the official exchange rate set by the National Bank of Ukraine (UAH 8-10 per dollar). Due to this, there will be no increase in the price of imported energy and medicines (which have no analogues in the country), in parallel, the cost of production of all domestic producers (due to lower energy prices) will decrease. Reducing the cost of our goods will also increase the solvent purchasing power of the country’s population. The fall in energy prices, by bringing them to critical imports, will lower the cost of goods and increase the competitiveness of our production both in the domestic and foreign markets, that is, will actively stimulate the domestic economy.
To combat the shadow turnover of the dollar and the cessation of profits of currency speculators that cause enormous damage to the state budget, it is necessary to introduce systematic currency auctions for noncritical imports, where the exchange rate does not need to be restrained artificially, but make it absolutely free. The first auctions to conduct a proposal to sell small amounts of currency, which will facilitate the gradual satisfaction of the exuberant demand for the dollar. Constant holding of currency auctions will also lead to a natural drop in the dollar and the euro.
Such a system of policy-making state regulation of the currency market will steadily reduce the volume of non-critical imports, which will have a positive impact on the foreign trade balance of Ukraine, and will not worsen the living standards of poor people and the middle class of the country. At the same time, these measures will fundamentally protect the domestic producer and promote its development. At the same time, those imported goods, the import of which will be significantly reduced, as a result of the measures taken, will be replaced by goods revived national producer. Lower prices for domestic products that will replace similar imports will indirectly increase the purchasing power of the population and will stimulate the purchase of national producer goods. This will further activate the business inside Ukraine and increase the revenues of the state budget.
Here is one of the most important mechanisms of direct policy state regulation of the economy, in the critical socio-economic situation in the country. I want to emphasize again that the described mechanism should be applied in the country immediately, while the economy of Ukraine has not fallen into the abyss!
Public figure, Academician
and Vice-President of the Academy of Economic Sciences of Ukraine